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March 31, 2005
US Count Votes to Release Study
US Count Votes will release a "Scientific Study on Exit Polls" tomorrow that they say will highlight National Election Pool (NEP) data, which suggest that election fraud may be the best explanation for the 2004 exit poll discrepancy. The study is signed by the following academics and analysts:
*Josh Mitteldorf, PhD - Temple University Statistics Department
*Steven F. Freeman, PhD - Center for Organizational Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania
*Brian Joiner, PhD - Prof. of Statistics (ret) University of Wisconsin
*Frank Stenger, PhD - Professor, School of Computing, University of Utah
*Richard G. Sheehan, PhD -Professor, Department of Finance, University of Notre Dame
*Paul F. Velleman, PhD - Associate Prof., Department of Statistical Sciences, Cornell University
*Victoria Lovegren, PhD - Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University
*Campbell B. Read, PhD - Prof. Emeritus, Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University
*Jonathan Simon, J.D., National Ballot Integrity Project
*Ron Paul Baiman, PhD, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois at Chicago
For an insight into the thinking of one of the US Count Votes' statisticians, read this article from The Capital Times of Madison Wisconsin. The retired University of Wisconsin statistics professor,
can't just pretend everything is rosy, he says, when he reads that Steven Freeman, a respected University of Pennsylvania professor, says the odds of the exit polls in the critical states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania all being so far off were about 662,000 to 1.Dr. Joiner is referring to a quote from The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy by Dr. Freeman.
I recently circulated a paper critical of Dr. Freeman's work and have previously posted similar criticism in response to analysis from Jonathan Simon and Dr. Ron Baiman. (The Social Science Research Council, National Research Commission on Elections and Voting posted my recent paper and Mystery Pollster, Mark Blumenthal's review can be found here.)
I know you all are drooling over the study's pending release. I certainly am. No, really - I am. This is quite exciting for a data dweeb like myself (scary huh?). In all seriousness, most of these professors are affiliated with major universities and have distinguished careers. Sure they are biased and have an agenda, but who doesn't? Hopefully they didn't let this bias get in the way of their science. Should I find time in the next week to pour over their analysis, I'll do my best to report back. I bet you all can't wait (hey! clean that slobber off your keyboard!)
Posted by Rick at March 31, 2005 02:14 AM