January 29, 2006
Chocolate City Checkin
Greetings from New Orleans! Yup, still here. I've been deployed with FEMA for four months now and recently re-upped for another six months. Sunny and the kids moved out here last Monday. For now we're holed up in a Homewood Suites, but we move into a 2BR corporate apartment in the Warehouse District on Wednesday. I'm so happy to have them out here and I'm so proud of my wife for taking this huge step with me.
We found a "normal church" this morning. I'd been to four or five different churches since I arrived and came to the conclusion that southern churches were too weird for me. This morning's service at Calvary Baptist Church in Algiers was refreshing. It seemed natural to give it a shot since Collin will be starting school there on Wednesday. (Oh - side story... Collin took his entrance exam. The test was 35 pages long and was supposed to take 2.5 hours. He finished in 1.5 hours and the proctor told Sunny not to buy the uniforms until the test was graded as if she thought he couldn't sit still long enough to take the full test. He did extremely well and of course we got a call from the principal very excited to have him enroll.)
Calvary Baptist hosts the Red Cross and prepares most of the meals delivered to victims and relief workers still hard at work in east New Orleans, St. Bernard and Plaquemines. It's hard to tell what the rest of the world thinks about the Gulf Coast recovery efforts, but I suspect many think things have pretty much returned to normal. Far from it. In fact, I drive through the devastated areas and progress is noted by the opening of a single gas station or small restaurant. I heard on the radio the other day that less than 25% of all City of New Orleans restaurants have been certified by the health department to reopen. It's been five full months since the storm!
I'm currently the deputy director of infrastructure recovery for St. Bernard Parish. St. Bernard was destroyed by stormsurge. Every single building flooded, leaving 70,000 homeless. I manage a staff of ~40 working on 500 projects worth nearly $750mil. It's been challenging, but also a phenomenal opportunity. I'm working 70-80 hrs/wk and frankly haven't had the urge to blog. I rarely read blogs anymore either. I have many pictures and videos of St. Bernard, Plaquemines and the 9th ward, but haven't found the time to post. I'll try my best to get something up. I'm sure the passion for blogging will return, but probably not until my work here is done.
I haven't been a complete lump on a log though. I managed to co-author two pieces on exit polling since September: one for the American Statistical Association Joint Statistical Meeting proceedings and the other for Public Opinion Pros.
Take care everyone.
Posted by Rick at 06:09 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
November 23, 2005
Catch and Release Program to End...But Why Did it Ever Begin?
Just when I thought the government couldn’t be any dumber… (HT: Drudge)
Under long-standing procedure along the U.S. border with Mexico, illegal crossers of nationalities other than Mexican -- dubbed OTMs by the Border Patrol -- have been entitled to a hearing before an immigration judge before they could be deported.So let me get this straight. The immigrants come here illegally, get caught, then are released and asked to turn themselves in at a later date? Makes perfect sense...Geez.Because of a severe shortage of space to hold them until the hearing, they were released after being fingerprinted and given a "notice to appear," a document stating they had agreed to show up at court at a certain date.
The notice serves as a travel document allowing its holder past Border Patrol checkpoints on the roads leading from the border to the interior. Most OTMs do not show up for their hearing and meld into the population.
Posted by Rick at 11:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 31, 2005
Alito, Bird Flu, and Katrina Recovery
A few quick hits this morning...
Word came moments ago: Judge Samuel Alito will be President Bush's nominee to replace Justice O'Connor.
I know little about Judge Alito, but the way the Democrat talking heads and CNN reporters are treating the nominee, I think I'll like him. He apparently bears the nickname "Scalito" - Little Scalia - and a CNN reporter characterized him as "emminently qualified." Hugh Hewitt linked to a quick guide of Alito's most important decisions.
All the Republican Senators who offered tepid or no support for Miers had better be ready for this coming fight - already characterized by some as a blood bath. Thankfully the Democrats allowed Chief Justice Roberts to light the path to SCOTUS confirmation. Republicans should demand that Judge Alito be given the exact same treatment.
Last night, the History channel aired a special on the bird flu - The Next Plague. Without Christ, I would be absolutely terrified. The History Channel needs to air this special many times in the near future.
Finally I turn to the Katrina recovery. Just because Katrina is out of the headlines, doesn't mean the recovery is on autopilot and Americans, especially American Christians, should not forsake the thousands of people here desperate for assistance.
I attended a small church in the area this weekend. Too many brothers and sisters remain homeless or in shelters. Too many brothers and sisters pleading with their pastor for help with shelter, clothing, house gutting, and roof repair. Donations are only trickling in and don't come close to meeting the need. Made me wonder how many Christians blew their money on selfish pleasures this weekend while fellow saints suffer. Disgraceful actually... Remember - it's not your money. God gives and takes away and He's entrusted us to be stewards over his resources. Right now the body should be expending their energy ministering to the lost - the guttermost to the uttermost. But how can they fulfill their Mission if the body can't even take care of their own? Find a church in need - there are many - and free up resources in your posession for God's work.
Posted by Rick at 06:31 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 11, 2005
Why Strain to Defend a B+?
Hugh Hewitt said so himself: Harriet Miers is a B+. Bush supporters have the right to expect an A+ nomination and take the fight to the obstructionist Dems in the Senate. Hugh is dedicating and amazing amount of energy to defend a B+.
Posted by Rick at 07:42 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Greetings from Louisiana!
I've been assigned to Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parishes. Located immediately south and southeast of New Orleans, these two Parishes are said to be the hardest hit in Louisiana. After a few days on the ground, I can report that the damage here is greater than anything I imagined.
Every home and structure in St. Bernard Parish was flooded and many were completely destroyed. There are said to be about 25,000 homes in this Parish and I can't imagine any of them being habitable for a long time to come. Access to the Parish is still restricted to essential personnel. In the several miles of rubble I traveled today, I didn't see anyone who looked like a resident.
The first couple pictures are from my first day in New Orleans. I’m staying a block from the Convention Center and the first four pictures are from within a block or two of my hotel. The other pictures were taken today in St. Bernard Parish.
We're working 12+ hour days and I'm pretty spent at close of business each day, but my wife is sending our laptop so I might be able to squeeze out a post or two in the evenings.
Posted by Rick at 07:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
September 24, 2005
The Market: Why Worship It?
(Jim, this isn't directed at you - just a related rant.)
There are so many non-"Oh my! Gas is $4/gallon!" reasons to demand alternative energy sources.
If we know that our petroleum consumption is not sustainable, causes environmental damage, and supports terrorist nations, then our government should take steps to push the market to supply alternatives.
"Market" theory, when dealing with anything other than rivalrous/excludable goods, often fails, or only works itself out in the "long run." Well, in the long run: a) we're all dead; or b) irreversible long-term damage is done before the market kicks in.
Like lemmings, we design our regions so that the car is for most people the only feasible mode of travel. We fill tank after tank of petrol but know that we contribute marginally to the cumulative problem, so the free rider effect wins and we keep sucking the petrol.
Poisonous air, polluted runoff, acid rain, terrorist attacks - all products of our reliance on oil - are examples of externalities not adequately considered by our idol, the market.
My idea of a good Republican is one who understands economics well enough to know that markets are rarely perfect, and the only time they work well is when dealing with a certain type of good (pure private goods). A good Republican realizes that government can prime markets or push them to move in certain directions through taxation, regulation, and prohibition. A good Republican believes that government can be a good compliment to the market, not an enemy. A good Republican would have supported higher gas taxes to fund R&D of alternative fuels a long time ago. If this Republican isn't considered a "conservative" for her worldview, so be it.
Unfortunately, most Republicans I know continue to worship their idol, the market, ignorant of its theoretical and practical limitations. Markets aren't perfect. The government isn't perfect. Why worship either?
The river of truth flows through the valley of two extremes. Market economics is not the answer. Socialism is not the answer. But moderate government intervention of markets can be a very good thing.
Posted by Rick at 01:27 AM | Comments (30) | TrackBack
September 23, 2005
Game Theory
Game theory meant something else when I was an undergrad.
Posted by Rick at 05:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 22, 2005
DC Bound
Sunday I fly to DC for 9 days of FEMA training. Following training, I will be deployed immediately to the field for at least 3 months - location to be determined. It looks like I will be supporting FEMA with damage assessment, debris removal, site preparation, site planning, and reconstruction. That covers just about everything, so it doesn't tell me much. Whatever. I just want to serve.
Pray for my wife and kids that they will be strong while I'm gone.
Posted by Rick at 03:22 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
September 21, 2005
Smart Growth: Let the Market Decide
I just finished reading a 2001 interview of New Urbanist Andres Duany for my urban design class.
Q: Where do you think the Bush administration will go with smart growth?He's so right...A: Smart growth, thanks to Al Gore's backing, has been positioned as a movement of he left, and so the right is reflexively attacking it. But smart growth could be repositioned: It shouldn't be imposed, but is should be legal everywhere.
Right now, when you want to build a compact, diverse, walkable, and transit-friendly community, it's illegal. You need variance after variance after variance. Let's suggest instead that every single jurisdiction should have a smart growth code so that the market can decide - because right now the market has only sprawl as a choice. This idea can be presented to the Republicans as choice.
Take a moment to view Peter Calthorpe's photo simulations and project portfolio. Like Duany's, Calthorpe's master planning and urban design business is booming as developers realize that there is a great deal of profit to be made from transforming extremely dull, inefficient, and often decaying suburban nowhereplaces into vibrant, walkable, and mixed-use communities.
Unfortunately, like a square peg in a round hole, most of their projects are forced to comply with sprawl perpetuating development standards. The product is too often a Disneyland version of the original vision.
The market wants to supply new urbanist communities - government regulation is holding the market back. And new urbanism is paradoxically championed by the left and frustrated by the right. Odd, don't you think?
Posted by Rick at 10:04 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
September 20, 2005
Bravo Michelle!
Michelle Malkin exposes another Bush crony appointee. Conservatives shouldn't be afraid to confront the President when he deserves it. Bravo Michelle!
Posted by Rick at 03:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Revelation Upon Us?
Tens of thousands dead from an earthquake in Iran. Tens of thousands more dead from a heat wave in Europe. Hundreds of thousands dead from a tsunami in Asia. 90,000 square miles ravaged by a hurricane. What do they have in common? All very recent natural disasters of "Biblical proportion."
Now come doomsday predictions from the World Health Organization of a potential plague or pestilence of Biblical proportion - the Avian Bird Flu (ABF).
Keep your eye on FluWiki for details on National ABF Awareness Week sometime in October.
A non-Christian dentist friend of mine told me not to worry about global pandemics. With a heavy dose of snark, he exhorted me to "Trust in the Lord." Well, duh... But just as I trust in the Lord for the safety of my family, I still lock the door.
I have to wonder...Is Revelation upon us?
Posted by Rick at 12:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Gays in the Military
Ed Brayton of ITA links to a piece in Positive Liberty highlighting the contradiction in the military's policy on gay service.
On the one hand, they adamantly claim that allowing gays to serve in the military undermines morale and unit cohesion (the same exact arguments they made 60 years ago against allowing blacks to serve in "white" units, incidentally), but on the other hand when wartime comes around they suddenly stop discharging those who admit to being gay.I'm sure that the military's policy, if accurately described here, is an attempt to limit use of the "gay card" to avoid deployment in a war zone, but that makes me wonder why the military would want to deploy cowards in the first place. That point aside, the contradiction is glaring given that the miliary's rationale for their policy is that allowing gays to serve openly would harm morale and unit cohesion in battle.
Ed ended his post by taking a stand against discrimination: "Gay soldiers can serve their country just as bravely as straight ones."
Josh Clayborn questioned Ed and others who agree with him in comments: "Should women also be permitted to serve in all capacities of the military?"
Ed responded: "If an individual is qualified to perform a given duty, I do not think that traits unrelated to the performance of that duty should prevent them from being allowed to do so. That would include their skin color, gender, sexual orientation and perhaps other factors; I would also include the potential reaction of other soldiers to those unrelated traits as an unrelated trait in and of itself."
My two cents: In high school, I studied the case of a woman who served in Panama as an MP during the invasion in 1989. While on patrol, her unit came under fire. Although she had the same training as the men in her unit, the men instinctively surrounded her and would not let her engage the enemy. Due to "traits unrelated to her performance" she became a liability on that mission, although on paper she was supposed to be an asset. Her story provoked a very heated discussion for an 11th grade history class, but the I have always remembered the exercise.
Sure the MP case at was 16 years ago, but I think the point has some contemporary relevance.
The question about gays in the military is not one of the capability of the gay man or woman. It is about the tolerance of the men and women with whom they would serve. The military should not be a social experiment, although I agree that is the same terrible argument used against integration with blacks decades ago.
The issue is tough to approach from a policy standpoint and perhaps best resolved through incrementalism. President Clinton's "Dont' Ask, Don' Tell" policy was a good incremental step. The current policy limiting discharging of gays during war time is another incremental step. The more exposure the brass and grunts get to the gays within their ranks, the more tolerant they will become and the lower the threat they will pose to morale and unit cohesion.
Posted by Rick at 01:42 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
September 19, 2005
Trailer Park King
In comments, Fran (bless her heart) wrote that I should give thought and prayer to entering the political arena. Ha! If only I could speak!
Radioblogger dubbed me "King of the Trailer Park" following a call into the Hugh Hewitt show about the fed plans to construct mini-trailer park cities to house evacuees until their communities are rebuilt (See transcript). I can't bring myself to link to the soundbite because it's as unnerving as nails on a chalk board. I'm a bumbling idiot. Sure I was trying to navigate an interstate interchange during the call, but c'mon!
I'll leave politics to the former car salesmen like Tom Campbell. Bumbling idiots don't sell many good cars and a good politician has to sell many lemons.
A note of clarification: The plans I wrote for FEMA involved the construction of 50,000 mobile home units for approximately 150,000 evacuees. In the interview I said, erroneously, that the plans involved 150,000 mobile home units. But, the beauty of the plans (IMHO) is that they are scalable. If the mission is 300,000 units, then all you have to do is replicate my plans 6 times. Also, FEMA told us not to consider the cost because our plans were a first cut at solving the problem. Cost would certainly factor into deciding between alternatives. But FEMA needed alternatives to consider and giving them one was my assignment. Hugh is against the plans and has a few good ideas. Perhaps if I find time I can point out where Hugh is blowing it and where he has it right.
Posted by Rick at 08:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 18, 2005
Porkbusters
We've discussed the government's funding of Katrina and DeLay's ludicrous comments at lenght at SCO (see posts and comments here, here, and here). But we're not alone. The topic has been broached many times across the blogosphere this week.
Instapundit and NZ Bear have kicked off a Porkbusters project.
Glenn writes:
Identify some wasteful spending in your state or (even better) Congressional District. Put up a blog post on it. Go to N.Z. Bear's new PorkBusters page and list the pork, and add a link to your post.Sounds like a good idea.Then call your Senators and Representative and ask them if they're willing to support having that program cut or -- failing that -- what else they're willing to cut in order to fund Katrina relief. (Be polite, identify yourself as a local blogger and let them know you're going to post the response on your blog). Post the results. Then go back to NZ Bear's page and post a link to your followup blog post.
M.U.S.T...F.I.N.D...T.I.M.E...
Posted by Rick at 07:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Sunset from Space
Posted by Rick at 10:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 17, 2005
Stupid
Check out Danny Carlton’s post “Stupid people wearing stupid shirts”
Carlton opines:
I'm sorry, while I'm the first to argue that cries of racism are tossed out way, way too quickly in this country—how in the heck is that not racist?!? And furthermore, do we really need morons like this in the Marines?!? I always thought the Marines had higher standards that that.Hear! Hear!
Posted by Rick at 11:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Some People Just Need to Chill Out
A couple of months ago, World Vision circulated a notice to its child sponsors that due to rising costs, the monthly contribution would be increased by $4. The notices explained that the increase was not compulsory and sponsors could opt out by returning a self addressed stamped envelope for their convenience. I didn't think anything of it, as it was only the second time in nearly seven years that they were requesting a modest increase.
Today I got a letter from President Richard Sterns apologizing almost to the point of embarassment for their insensitivity and that they should have asked sponsors rather than requesting objecting sponsors to opt out of the increase. From the letter, it is clear that a fair number of people registered strong dissatisfaction with World Vision.
What a waste of a good organization's time and resources. If you don't want to pay an extra $4 per month to help support your child, then all you had to do was fill out the card and opt out. Some people just need to chill out and not be so darn selfish.
Posted by Rick at 01:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 16, 2005
Feds Plan Temporary Cities for Evacuees
That's the headline of this AP story posted at Drudge. The AP's article begins with this mental exercise:
Imagine building a city from scratch. Now, imagine doing it in just a few months - dozens of times over.Last fall, I developed group site housing plans for FEMA which basically amounted to the construction of temporary cities with the full range of services for up to 150,000 people.
...
The solution is mind-boggling in its scope and complexity: Build dozens of temporary cities of up to 25,000 homes from the ground up. The ambitious resettlement plan is unprecedented in U.S. history, experts say, and raises huge logistical questions that, in most cases, have yet to be answered - or even anticipated.
...
The settlements would range from 2,000 to 25,000 units - mostly prefabricated houses and mobile homes - arranged in loose street grids. They will ideally be placed within a short drive of pre- existing shopping centers, grocery stores and gas stations to make life easier for evacuees.
In one of my first blog posts over a year ago, I discussed my work as Hurricane Ivan approached the Gulf Coast. I wrote:
Ivan the Terrible is heading somewhere; where exactly, only God knows. Pray it doesn't hit New Orleans.The initial plan was to construct the homes in 30-45 days of a catastrophic event, but we quickly realized this schedule was not realistic. The plans were revised to allow 60-90 days for construction. The plans were put to the test by FEMA with Hurricane Pam - a simulated Cat V hurricane directly hitting New Orleans.
FEMA called earlier this week. They requested my cell phone number and told me I'm on standby - ready to deploy with 48 hours notice for a minimum 3 month assingment. They asked for my resume so they would know how to best place me. I'm a little nervous. I didn't imagine last summer when writing the plans that a year later I might have a hand in implementing them.
Posted by Rick at 05:07 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
ABV
Hugh Hewitt is talking bird flu and presidential accountability.
The buck will again stop on the president's desk, though, and he knows it. I hope he has communicated to all involved that he wants a plan on his desk on the hour by hour response once (Avian Bird Flu) reaches the US.Agreed. FluWiki is an interesting experiment in on-line collaboration to prepare for ABF. However, private sector for-profit and collaborative responses to ABF amount to nothing politically. When it strikes and if we aren't prepared, the President will be blamed. If you think the Katrina blame game was bad, just wait...
UPDATE: This ABC News article makes discussion of the political implications of a bird flu pandemic look awefully petty (HT: Drudge).
It could kill a billion people worldwide, make ghost towns out of parts of major cities, and there is not enough medicine to fight it.Politics aside - the President must make this the nation's top priority. When the ABF mutates to allow human-to-human transmission, it will bring a ~50% mortality rate. The potential threat to this country is far far greater than any act of terrorism I can imagine.
...
"Right now in human beings, it kills 55 percent of the people it infects," says Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow on global health policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. "That makes it the most lethal flu we know of that has ever been on planet Earth affecting human beings."
...
"The lack of advanced planning up until the moment in the United States, in the sense of not having a huge stockpile I think your citizens deserve, has surprised me and has dismayed me," [professor John Oxford of the Royal London Hospital] admits.
Posted by Rick at 10:50 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
September 15, 2005
Humility: An Essential Leadership Quality
Matt wrote recently:
The buck stops with [the President], but if there's no apology from the city leadership in NOLA (which has been corrupt for generations), none from the state leadership in LA (which has likewise been corrupt), none from the congressional delegation, and if said apology would be further damage to his administration and his party, then W should under no circumstances take responsibility.I took issue with Matt's position and wrote in comments:
If I waited for my wife to apologize every time something broke down in our relationship, we wouldn't have much of a relationship. Humility is a great thing in a leader. Not to mention a Christian.To my great pleasure, President Bush took full responsibility for the failures of the federal government on Tuesday. The President’s act of humility was followed by a statement from Governor Blanco. (HT: Josh Britton)
“We all know that there were failures at every level of government: state, federal and local. At the state level, we must take a careful look at what went wrong and make sure it never happens again. The buck stops here, and as your governor, I take full responsibility,” Blanco told lawmakers in a special meeting of the Louisiana Legislature.I know that politics is too often more about perception than reality and that the President’s words have been twisted in headlines to suggest that he took full responsibility for everything that went wrong, but that shouldn’t stop people, especially Christians, from doing the right thing.
I'm proud of you Mr. President.
Posted by Rick at 10:50 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 14, 2005
Time to Raise Taxes!
In response to comments that the government should cut spending to pay for Huricane Katrina relief, Tom DeLay declared that the feds were running at maximum efficiency.
My answer to those that want to offset the spending is sure, bring me the offsets, I'll be glad to do it. But nobody has been able to come up with any yet...after 11 years of Republican majority we've pared it down pretty good.How about starting with the "6,371 pet projects" in the Transportation Bill, Congressman?
How long will conservatives tolerate deficits, especially when their leader in the House says there isn't anything left to cut? Looks like it is time to start raising taxes.
Posted by Rick at 07:34 AM | Comments (18) | TrackBack
September 12, 2005
Shocker!
Not really... FEMA Chief Brown resigns "in the best interest of the agency and best interest of the president..."
Posted by Rick at 03:06 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
September 10, 2005
Shameful
The New York Times isn't exactly known for its objective reporting, but this piece is truly shameful (HT: Drudge). The article begins:
The governor of Louisiana was "blistering mad." It was the third night after Hurricane Katrina drowned New Orleans, and Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco needed buses to rescue thousands of people from the fetid Superdome and convention center. But only a fraction of the 500 vehicles promised by federal authorities had arrived.Well gee. You mean these buses Governor?Ms. Blanco burst into the state's emergency center in Baton Rouge. "Does anybody in this building know anything about buses?" she recalled crying out.
That's just one quibble with the first few sentences in this shameful article.
Posted by Rick at 04:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Stafford Act: Presidential Has Unilateral Power to "Take Charge"?
As a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), I have access to the AAPORnet list serv that includes members of all the major polling organizations. My argument to the polling community was that interpretation of the recent polls showing 60-70% of Americans unhappy with the President's handling of Katrina may be aided if future polls also probed the public's understanding of the President's power (Constitutional or other) to "take charge" of domestic relief/recovery efforts.
One member directed me to this Department of Homeland Security National Response Plan dated December 2004. On page 7, the Plan lays out the authority of the President as granted by the Stafford Act and "applicable regulations":
If the President determines that an emergency exists where the primary responsibility for response rests with the Government of the United States, or because the emergency involves an area or facility for which the Federal Government exercises exclusive or preeminent primary responsibility and authority, the President may unilaterally direct the provision of assistance under the act and will, if practicable, consult with the Governor of the State.Many will argue that response to Katrina was not a "primary responsibility" of the federal government, but that is a different argument than the one I am exploring here. I am trying to understand if the President had the *power* to intervene more forcefully than he did, and if so, what power did he have that he chose not to exercise. Now is not the time for the President to answer these questions, but when the time does come, I will be interested to hear his response.
Am I missing something?
Posted by Rick at 01:09 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 09, 2005
Conservatives out of Touch with Middle America?
The New York Times has a fascinating piece this morning highlighting federalism's role in the sluggish response to Katrina. At one point the Bush administration considered seizing control of the relief effort via the “Insurrection Act.”
Best quote of the article:
Can you imagine how it would have been perceived if a president of the United States of one party had pre-emptively taken from the female governor of another party the command and control of her forces, unless the security situation made it completely clear that she was unable to effectively execute her command authority and that lawlessness was the inevitable result?Wouldn't that have been most ironic? Democrats arguing against federal intervention?I’m with Mickey Kaus on this one.
Why should there be any doubt that the President can take command of a relief effort within our own country?Sort of what I was getting at with this post. I believe that Mickey's point of view is shared by a vast majority of Americans. No doubt many conservatives, ensconced in their nuanced ideological positions, will dismiss my comments in defense of federalism. But I urge them to consider Mickey's very simple question, "Why should there be any doubt...?"
…
When things screw up, these days, we hold the president and the federal government responsible. It follows that the president and the federal government should have the power to stop things from screwing up.
A slew of recent polling shows that a majority of Americans think the President has done a poor job in responding to Katrina. When many respected polling firms report similar numbers on highly similar questions, you can bet that they reflect the "true" opinion of the population. Visit Mystery Pollster and keep scrolling. It's all there.
On many issues - partial birth abortion, gay marriage, the role of church and state, etc - Democrats are clearly out of touch with middle America. The worst part is that they seem blind to their disconnect. I fear that on the very important question of federalism and emergency response, Conservatives are equally out of touch and equally blind.
Posted by Rick at 10:17 AM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
September 08, 2005
The Giving Culture
Jim's earlier post and Josh Britton’s yesterday, among many others, touch on the recent meme that racism is at the heart of the government's failure to adequately respond to Katrina. Unfortunately, I have little doubt that the number of master’s theses and PhD dissertations analyzing this pre-conceived notion will far outweigh those that analyze the generous nature of Americans and its corporations.
But there is hope!
Driving with my mother in-law and the kids to enjoy a dip in the pool on Monday, I came across friends from church who were assisting their children's effort to sell snow cones for Katrina victims. Kids aged 4 to 10 manned street the street corners armed with hand-painted signs and a healthy amount of energy.
These kids clearly weren’t alone. Doug highlighted youth efforts in Houston and the San Diego Union Tribune reported of other youngsters raising funds in another part of my home town. I’m sure there are many more untold stories of youth philanthropy.
These gestures mark our nation's giving culture.
Kids don’t conjure up the idea to raise money to help others own their own; instead, these ideas spawn from an upbringing that values service and self-sacrifice - values taught and exemplified by parents, friends, and neighbors.
These values, instilled in most of us from youth, are also responsible for the 587 million dollars donated thus far on behalf of Katrina victims, according to the Chronicle of Philanthropy.
Academics, politicians, and activists will use Katrina to decry perceived or real social injustices. I pray only that they also take the time emphasize to their kids the importance of giving to others. Investing in our giving culture will reap more societal rewards than any thesis, dissertation, speech or protest rally.
NZ Bear has a list of charities and their web-sites. Please continue to give and expand the influence of American’s giving culture.
Posted by Rick at 02:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 07, 2005
Gay Marriage Bill Passes in CA
In 2000, 61 percent of California voters pass Proposition 22, which defined marriage as being between one man and one woman. Yesterday, California Democrats overturned Proposition 22, narrowly approving AB 849.
Read the San Francisco Chronicle and San Diego Union Tribune articles. If you are a CA resident register your voice with the Governor Schwarzeneger and let him know where you stand.
Posted by Rick at 08:47 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
September 06, 2005
School Starts in One Year
I’m not a ConLaw expert, but I hope that someone who is will consider the following hypothetical and answer some questions.
Hypothetical: The President has specific and credible information 72 hours in advance that there a terrorist attack will occur in a major port city. All indications are that the attack will destroy the city and its fallout will affect communities in three states. When confronted with the prospect of catastrophe, the governors and local officials in the affected area do not take the threat as seriously as the President thinks that they should and these local officials fail to protect their constituents.We are a nation of inter-dependent regions. Regions, not cities or states, are the economic muscle of our economy. This event devastated an entire region, which cross-cuts three states and has clear national - even global implications.What does the President have the power to do?
If the Constitution does not vest the Executive with the power to overrule decisions of governors or local officials when a major population center and economic hub in our country faces immediate threat, then the Constitution is antiquated.
If you read me regularly, you'll know that I’m not a traditional “state’s rights-limited government” conservative. In fact, I’m fairly “liberal” on many issues, but choose the Republican Party because it most closely aligns with me on issues of life, family, and national security. But the Republican Party must get this one right if it is to keep many well intentioned Christians (not necessarily “Christian Conservatives”) in the Party. I’m willing to bet that the majority of Americans do not care much about the answer to the questions: “What is police power?” and “Where does it reside?”
If there isn’t a federal police power to handle situations of national significance when the local officials are incompetent and perhaps even criminally negligent, then I’m willing to bet that most Americans believe there ought to be.
Republicans will learn this lesson - one way or another. School starts in about a year.
Posted by Rick at 04:20 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 04, 2005
Micro-Relief: The San Diego Church's Effort
Pastors from my home church Horizon Christian Fellowship will be greeting 170+ evacuees at Lindbergh Field San Diego this afternoon. The Red Cross has requested the use of our buses to transport them to shelters and we have been asked to organize a children's ministry. Other San Diego churches such as The Rock, Maranatha Chapel, North Coast Calvary Chapel, and I'm sure many others by now have been assigned other responsibilities.
My pastors Mike Macintosh and Mickey Stonier are trained and certified in Critical Incident Stress Management (CISM) and certified teachers for Critical Incident Law Enforcement Enhancement. They are attached to the American Red Cross Spiritual Care Aviation Incident Response and have served in Oklahoma City and the World Trade Center.
As chaplains for the San Diego Police Department (Mike) and Fire Department (Mickey), our congregation actively supports chaplaincy ministries and will continue to do so in response to Katrina. Horizon will be sending teams to the disaster area to minister to the first responders as adjunct chaplains. Although trained professionals, first responders aren't super human, but people under a tremendous amount of stress and need to be served. Horizon's teams will attend primarily to the spiritual and other needs of the brave members of local police and fire departments who have been working grueling hours and are experiencing great suffering since last weekend.
To support this micro-relief effort please contact Horizon Christian Fellowship and donate to the Chaplain's Fund.
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September 03, 2005
Chief Justice Rhenquist Has Died
A great American servant has passed. Article here.
Posted by Rick at 11:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Long-Term Housing
The MSNBC article is up. The question posed to me was regarding long-term housing for 500,000. Looking at the numbers this morning, I'm not sure that it will reach that level, but 150,000 as mentioned in my earlier post seems appropriate.
The feds retained the services of Carnival Cruise Lines to provide three ships for temporary housing. Sounds like a good plan, but how long can these ships be tied up? I doubt for six months or longer. Again, if you have a hotel room, sit tight...
Update: Some are buying homes elsewhere, an early indication that many will relocate permanently.
A week ago there were between 3,400 and 3,700 homes listed for sale in the area, he said. By the end of next week, he figures, there will be around only 500 still available -- ones that are either "extremely overpriced or uninhabitable.At the end of the day, I still predict there will some thousands, perhaps up to 150,000, will need alternative interim housing (up to 3 years). The market will go a long way to meeting the need, but I remain skeptical that it can meet all the housing needs of displaced persons.
[...]
Ortego's office is getting 200 calls an hour for people looking for rental property.
[...]
"As of yesterday, everything has been rented out," she said. "Now people are turning to buying because there is nothing left to rent."
Posted by Rick at 11:27 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 02, 2005
Maps of the Declared Disaster Areas
Also, this FEMA statement estimates that there are only 91,000 Hurricane victims requiring shelter. If 91,000 is an accurate figure (the only sourced estimate I’ve seen so far), I suspect that many who evacuated prior to Katrina are holed up with family, friends, and in hotels all over the south waiting to hear about the status of their property.
I just received an e-mail from a team my company sent to help with relief/reconstruction efforts. The e-mail said:
Lodging is a huge issue. To say that rooms are in short supply is the understatement of the century. The construction of a MASH-style temporary accommodations is underway and the reality is that some of our folks will likely wind up having to stay there for some period of time.We're expecting to send 300 or so engineers and planners (mostly engineers) in the next few weeks.
My advice to those who have hotel/motel rooms. Don’t give up your room until you know about the condition of your home or have made other arrangements!
Posted by Rick at 06:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Housing Needs of Katrina Victims
Earlier this morning, MSNBC Washington DC Bureau Chief Brock Meeks interviewed me regarding temporary and interim housing planning in response to catastrophic events. After the interview, I read Hugh Hewitt’s post, “What is to be done?”
Hugh offers several great ideas, including the following observation and suggestion (forgive the choppiness of the quote, but I think it conveys his idea well):
We don't neeed American refugee camps…the president…needs to send a few dozen of its best colonels (with) authority to determine…level of need…decide a plan for them…then assign a trooper to carry it out...While I’m not sure that the military is the best choice for determining the need level of evacuees and I doubt that completely avoiding “refugee camps” is possible, Hugh is on the right track.
(Full Disclosure: I’ve provided group site planning consulting services to FEMA in the past. What is written in this post should not be construed as the opinion of FEMA or my employer. These are my thoughts and opinions as a professional city planner with experience in catastrophic housing planning).
Draining New Orleans could take a month. Removing the mud and debris could take another couple of weeks, during which time inspection and “red tagging” of buildings for demolition could begin. As such, officials may not have a solid estimate of the scope of work required to rebuild devastated areas for six to eight weeks.
Each evacuee should be assigned a FEMA case manager. Evacuees and those residing in shelters should be interviewed within a week to determine their individual immediate and near-term needs. The following information should be collected:
• Full medical history and needs
• Number of people in family/group and a list of loved ones still unaccounted for
• Home address and status of property/possessions (if known)
• Place of employment
• Relatives or friends in unaffected parts of the country that might be able to house them for a time
The data gathered by these case managers should be loaded into a Geographic Information System (GIS) relational database that will facilitate determination needs by evacuee household or group. Information on evacuees could be joined with other data on damaged areas and complemented with data collected by field inspectors as it comes in. Satellite imagery should provide a “first cut” at identifying people who are likely to require “temporary” accommodations versus those who will need “interim” housing. By “temporary” I mean accommodations for folks who may be able to move back into their homes within 60-90 days. “Interim” housing refers to accommodations for up to 3 years.
Within a day of the interview, a report could be generated for each case, perhaps with images of the evacuee’s property and surrounding area, that will help case managers and evacuees decide how best to meet the immediate housing needs.
FEMA should already have people surveying rental housing markets in surrounding unaffected areas and placing deposits vacant apartment and home units. As units are held for victims, these data should be loaded into the GIS and an inventory compiled. The database should also include information on citizens who have expressed a willingness to share their home for some period.
Part of the housing determination should be based on a survey of evacuee skills. The ideal situation would be to involve evacuees, most of whom are likely unemployed (due to events), in the reconstruction efforts. That would require placing these people nearby affected communities, ideally their own. Again, a task easily handled with the GIS.
As noted by Hugh, we don’t need "refugee camps," although I’m not sure it is possible to rule out temporary encampments for some of the displaced evacuees. Based on the initial interviews and evaluation by FEMA case managers, victims can be placed in one of the following categories.
No Temporary or Interim Housing Need: Suitable long-term housing can be found within a couple of weeks
• Those whose homes sustained minimal damage and can return
• Those with the means and willingness to relocate out of the region permanently
Temporary Housing Need: Cannot move back into homes or onto lots for 60-90 days
• Those who can stay with relatives or friends
• Those who can relocate to a mobile home on their existing property while their homes are rebuilt
• For all others – assignment to a FEMA temporary encampment.
Interim Housing Need: Communities cannot be rebuilt within 90 days
• Those who can stay with relatives or friends
• Those who can be assigned vacant rental apartments or homes within the vicinity of the devastated areas.
• For all others – assignment to a FEMA temporary encampment until group sites can be constructed for interim accommodations.
Hugh’s suggestion may work well for evacuees who fall into most of the above categories. For “all others,” FEMA will likely develop temporary and interim group sites, which no doubt will be labeled by the media “refugee camps.” Temporary housing encampments are FEMA’s bread and butter. I’m sure that there are many very experienced people at FEMA who are likely gearing up to meet this need as we speak. Remember, these will be temporary and the accommodations will be tolerable as they will be air conditioned, offer a semblance of privacy, and evacuees will have access to clean water, food, and showers. Think about the temporary facilities constructed in Iraq for our soldiers and you get the picture. Do our soldiers live in "refugee camps"?
The interim group site planning will be the real challenge.
Let’s assume that we have upwards of 1,000,000 people who have been evacuated or are homeless. Now assume that 15% are not able to relocate permanently, live with relatives or friends, or find housing in the existing vacant housing stock. We’re talking about constructing interim housing for approximately 150,000 very quickly.
To accomplish a disaster housing mission for 150,000 people, sites must be identified, acquired, cleared, graded, and developed as soon as feasible. That means that land will likely be condemned, an action that may require special legislation from Congress (any comment from eminent domain and NEPA experts?).
Manufactured structures will be required. Lots of them. Assume an average household size of roughly 2.8 (should be refined for regional considerations) and the mission would require over 50,000 mobile homes!
In addition to mobile homes, these mini-communities will require services and facilities. How much land would this require? Based on some research that I did last summer, I calculated that a neighborhood of over 2,200 units, complete with an elementary school (average is one elementary school per 7,000 people) and modest commercial and office/administrative space, would require approximately 400 acres of land. A community of roughly 50,000 people, which could be comprised of 8 neighborhoods (about the size required to support a new high school), would require over 3,500 acres. A single settlement for 150,000 people would require more than 11,000 acres.
But why would we create a single mini-city to meet the need for 150,000 evacuees? In my opinion, that isn’t a viable or even the best option. What would 150,000 people do in a temporary mini-city developed on 11,000 acres of raw land in some rural area? Think of the social implications and morale of people living in such a community. It just doesn’t seem to make sense in this instance.
Instead of creating a single group site, FEMA surveyors should consider appending smaller group sites to existing communities nearby the devastated areas. These smaller, but more numerous group sites could feasibly tie into existing utility backbone systems and residents (no longer evacuees) could gradually become part of social fabric of their host communities. To house roughly 150,000 people, FEMA planners would only need to locate approximately 20-40 group sites for 2,000-8,000 people each to disperse the local impacts as well as disperse a potential labor pool for local reconstruction efforts throughout the gulf coast. Also, 20-40 group sites are very manageable from an organizational and construction stand point.
The Biggest Challenge
How many mobile homes and structures are currently available? How much treated lumber will be required? Aggregate for concrete? Glass for windows? Roofing materials? How much labor will be required to rebuild the devastated areas? How many engineers and inspectors will be required to review and approve all the redevelopment applications? The government cannot simply allow a “free for all” by developers. Projects must be reviewed. The reconstruction must be regulated to ensure the health, safety and welfare of future occupants. Review time will be a function of available human capital with particular expertise (engineers and planning technicians in particular). I suspect that solving these logistical and human capital problems will be the biggest challenge to reconstruction efforts.
Update: See my latest post for additional thoughts on housing Katrina evacuees, which includes a link to the MSNBC article mentioned above.
Posted by Rick at 03:12 PM | Comments (19) | TrackBack
August 30, 2005
Waters Continue to Rise in New Orleans
The waters are rising in New Orleans and the Mayor estimates that 80% of the city is under water.
Continued flooding of New Orleans is FEMA's worse-case scenario natural disaster scenario. The waters will not recede, as many news stations keep saying. The water levels may reach equilibrium, but there is literally no place for the water to go. It must be pumped out, an effort that will take weeks, if not months. Mobile AL and other cities along the gulf coast are also devastated. How many hundreds of thousands will be homeless? For how long?
Keep praying for the affected communities, emergency response personnel, and the long-term reconstruction efforts. Hugh Hewitt is looking for someone to organize a coordinated blogothon for relief efforts.
Josh Britton has all the relevant links.
Posted by Rick at 11:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 29, 2005
Katrina - God's Judgment?
The folks at Boar's Head Tavern are having that very discussion.
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August 28, 2005
Katrina II
Hugh Hewitt questioned early media reports about the potential loss of life associated with Katrina. I agree with Josh Britton, 10,000 deaths is not out of the question if the storm surges clear the levies in New Orleans and sink much of the city. 10,000 deaths from a natural disaster in the United States is beyond the imagination for me, but God willing, residents heeded early calls to evacuate. Almost equally unimaginable is the report that as much as 1,000,000 people could be left homeless.
As mentioned in this post, I helped draft plans for "temporary" housing for up to 150,000 displaced persons following a catastrophic event. The plan didn't call for a refugee camp, but instead for housing, schools, shopping, employment, etc. constructed from modular units to be airlifted, trucked, shipped, and trained in from arround the world. The land would be identified (no easy task), cleared, graded, and the community constructed within 60-90 days. Residents would occupy the temporary community for six months to two years depending on the degree of flooding at ground zero. Many on our team questioned whether accomplishing a 60-90 day mission is possible. I can't begin to convey to all of you the logistical complexity of pulling off such an operation.
That's for 150,000 displaced persons and the AP's talking about potentially 1,000,000 people.
The story may be hype. It may be realistic. But, the bottom line is that constructing temporary housing for 150,000 people while New Orleans rebuilds would be a massive undertaking.
While I expect the people of Louisiana will have access to whatever federal resources necessary, I predict that Americans will once again rise to the challenge before us and demonstrate the resilience and compassion that made us a great nation.
Posted by Rick at 11:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Katrina
Last year, FEMA contracted with ~7 planning and engineering teams to develop contingency plans for a catastrophic event anywhere in the United States. With the plans partially developed, they "war gamed" a Cat V hurricane direct hit on New Orleans - FEMA's "worst-case scenario." They picked New Orleans because much of the City is well below sea-level and large enough storm surges could sink the town, making much of it inhabitable for long enough that long-term disaster housing would be required. In support of the project, I prepared development standards and site plan schematics for temporary housing and related facilities and services for up to 150,000 displaced persons that could be constructed and occupied within 60-90 days. It looks like FEMA's worst-case scenario may be realized with Katrina. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the plans are ready for "off the shelf" implementation.
Josh Britton attends LSU and is a native of Louisiana. Josh writes:
I’m considering riding out the storm with my parents in Denham Springs in northern Livingston Parish (the southern half of which is under a mandatory evacuation). I’m trying to find out if help is needed at any of the shelters in Baton Rouge. I know, for example, that my church has been opened to about 400 college students from New Orleans, and that there is a special needs shelter open at LSU.I thank God for Josh's servant heart during these trying times. I urge you brothers and sisters to pray without ceasing and when the call for help comes, put feet to your faith and serve.
Posted by Rick at 06:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 25, 2005
Kelo’s Consequences
A co-worker e-mailed to say that my State Senator, Christine Kehoe (I campaigned for her opponent in November’s election, btw), amended SB 1026 today, making it an “urgency measure.”
SB 1026, written in reaction to the Kelo v. City of New London SCOTUS decision, includes a two year moratorium on the use of eminent domain to take an owner-occupied home for private uses. The urgency amendment will require 2/3 support of the legislature, which means that Kehoe appears to have solidified bipartisan support of the bill and intends to move it quickly out of the Assembly, Senate, and to the Governor’s desk.
Kelo was a terrible decision. However, it did little to change things in my state. Redevelopment agencies had been condemning private residential and commercial land for private gain for a long time in California. It’s interesting to see how the outrage at Kelo has prompted a very liberal State Senator from my home district to give homeowners more protection under CA law than had been previously afforded.
This article provides a good overview of SB 1026.
Posted by Rick at 04:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Blogospheric Triumphs
I lack the words to describe Michael Yon’s latest dispatch from Mosul, Iraq. Pray for these boys and girls and honor them. Keep civilian reporters away from the guns as well (even the good one’s like Michael Yon).
Roger Piekle Sr., the climatologist who recently resigned from the CCSP Committee, charges that the New York Times blatantly misrepresented his views on climate change and reasons for resigning. He posts an Open Comment to Andy Revkin on his blog, Climate Science. Piekle, commented:
“I was very disappointed that the New York Times so badly mischaracterized my perspective, but fortunately we now have blogs so that errors can be corrected, and I've posted my response there..."
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August 24, 2005
San Diego's "Parallel Election"
Diebold’s machines scanned and tallied every ballot cast in my home town of San Diego in a recent election to replace resigned Mayor Dick Murphy. Controversy surrounding electronic vote tabulation machines, Diebold’s machines in particular, prompted the group Citizens Audit Parallel Election to hold a “parallel election” in an attempt to verify the official vote count.
The Citizens Audit Parallel Election found a 4 percent “red shift” from the official vote count, away from progressive candidate Donna Frye. Carl Luna, a professor of Political Science at San Diego Mesa College and lecturer at the University of San Diego, wrote a remarkable editorial on the findings last week. Luna wrote:
Math is non-partisanUnless you’ve had your head under a rock since November, you’ve heard similar probability based proclamations, as if sampling error is the only source of survey error.A team of statisticians from California State University- Northridge - have analyzed the data from CAPE, concluding that the probability of luck or chance as the cause of the observed four percent deviation is less than one in 1,300 - or .000678.
The Citizens Audit Parallel Election paid for a hand count in full view of its representatives of a select number of precincts. That recount of the hand marked ballots matched the Diebold count, almost exactly.
A partial recount yesterday to test the accuracy of scanners that read ballots and tallied votes in the San Diego mayor's race July 26 revealed results that were nearly identical to those of the machines.For example, a discrepancy of perhaps one vote occurred in a few precincts.
I agree with Jerry Ewig of Democracy for America.
The recount "does not prove the system is accurate and correct," said Ewig, who lives in Temecula. "We're still in need of a system that is verifiable and transparent to the people." (emphasis added)
But what about that parallel election (aka EXIT POLL) that called into question the election result? I am reminded Plissner and Mitofsky’s 1982 Public Opinion aritcle, “Voting Twice on Election Day”. Coming only two years after the first network projection based on exit poll results, the authors acknowledged potential problems with their “parallel elections.”
Voter polls and the more traditional sources of election predictions (precinct sampling) are subject to a mathematically definable sampling error. On top of that, voter polling presents a number of additional challenges. Things can – and have, at least in our experience – gone wrong. For example, there is no guarantee that voters who respond to the poll are like those who refuse to answer (pg. 15).Something clearly went wrong with San Diego’s “parallel election.” In line with every presidential election exit poll since 1988, the poll was clearly biased toward the Democratic candidate. But why? That’s a question the polling industry should make every effort to answer, and rectify.
Free, fair, and falsifiable elections should be goal of every American, regardless of partisanship. But we know that we are a long way from this goal if we have to rely on exit polls as a verification tool.
If you are interested in election reform issues, the Election Audit Institute is a fine new venue for discussion.
Posted by Rick at 11:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 23, 2005
Statistical Significance v. Validity
Hugh Hewitt mentioned “statistically significant” twice in as many posts about Patrick Ruffini’s August Straw poll.
The words of Inigo Montoya immediately came to mind: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means, what you think it means.”
I know Patrick Ruffini knows a thing or two about stats, so I had to check it out. Sure enough, there it was…er…was it? Here’s the line: “If this poll is as big as the last one (@13,000 responses), we'll have a statistically valid sample of online activists not just nationally, but in most of the fifty states.”
Notice that Patrick used the word “valid” and not “significant.” Is there a difference between statistically significant and statistically valid? Well, yes. There is a big difference.
Statistical significance is a function of sample size and degree of confidence. 13,000 responses to a simple random sample of population over 100,000 would yield a margin of error of either 0.8% or 1.1% depending on whether one wants to be 95% or 99% confident in the significance of the results. (Click here for a neat sample size/confidence interval calculator.)
Determining the validity of a survey is another thing. Statistical validity can be defined as “the degree to which an observed result, such as a difference between 2 measurements, can be relied upon and not attributed to random error in sampling and measurement.”
Robert Groves’ Total Survey Error framework describes four components to survey error: 1) sampling; 2) nonresponse; 3) coverage; and 4) measurement. Statistical significance addresses only sampling error. Statistical validity incorporates all four of Groves’ TSE components.
First off, Patrick’s survey is not a random sample of likely voters in the 2008 primary and therefore thinking in terms of statistical “significance” is misleading; however, the potential coverage error presents the greatest threat to the poll’s “validity.”
Coverage error is the error introduced to a survey when a segment of the population that the survey intends to represent is not included in the sampling frame. That is, what portion of Republican primary voters are not internet users, or more specifically, readers of the various internet sites that might advertise Ruffini’s straw poll? It doesn’t matter how large the sample size is if the population being sampled isn’t representative of the population the survey is intended to represent. The results may be interesting, but claiming statistical validity is not possible based on sample size alone.
For the record, I participated in the straw poll and selected Mass. Governor Mitt Romney, who isn't doing particularly well at the moment. Don't let my post stop you from playing along. As I said, the results, although perhaps not statistically significant or valid, are interesting; especially if you contend that internet consumers of conservative political news set the agenda for non-internet savvy conservatives.
Reference:
Groves, R. M. 1989. “Survey errors and survey costs.” New York: John Wiley.
Posted by Rick at 01:45 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Iraq's Sunnis Aim to Defeat Constitution in Vote
A very encouraging headline from Reuters. It’s not American democracy, but the political process is certainly familiar and appears to be gaining legitimacy.
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